10 years ago, I went on a little journey called 100 Cups inspired by my friend, Jason Elkins. The idea was to sit down with great people in our community, have a cup of coffee or tea, and just learn more about them and their dreams and goals. Post would follow on FB documenting what I had learned. Admittedly, I had to step outside myself a little to sit down with folks you really didn’t know, but that was kind of the point! Meet new people, hear new ideas, share the person and their vision with your realm of influence. Looking back, it was great. Met some amazing people and heard some amazing ideas.
As part of that journey, I also sat down with some of our local politicians at the tie here in Sumner County. I listened to their dreams and hopes for our County, or cities, and our community. It was 2016 and we were currently in a season of real growth and high demand to live in the area. Housing and land prices were going up, and people were flocking to come live in our wonderful place we all call home. But I had a burning question; Were we growing too fast? I kept hearing my grandmothers voice in my head saying, “You’re getting too big for your britches son.”
So I started asking questions each time I sat down with someone who had been voted into a political role for the county and our cities. Were we truly ready for the growth we were bringing in and hoping for? Were our roads ready to handle the traffic? Were out utility districts (water, sewer, and electric) ready for the strain on the systems? Were our schools ready for the influx of students? Were we prepared for more than just growth in number of houses and people in the community? Each one gave a resounding YES when asked about this. They were certain we were prepared.
Here we are, 10 years later, and Time has Told On Us! Strained utility districts having to limit access to water lines. Sudden needs for additional main line transmission lines from TVA. A recent report from the State of TN of a need to spend $130 million to address one of MANY traffic issues in the area. Why? Because we indeed were not ready! We truly have grown too big for our britches, and now the price is being paid. Not by those who made the choices and said we were ready, but by the average everyday citizen in the County. Farmlands being taken for new electrical lines. Utility Districts having to say no to new growth until someone can foot the bill to fixed overly strained systems. Low water pressure for some (and sometimes no water when certain county owned properties are irrigated to keep up appearances.) Tax money being used to expand roads in order to accommodate the higher traffic volumes and longer drives on the way to work and on the way home. All leading to the eventual reality, the County and Cities will have to ask the tax payer to pay even more of their hard earned money for the required upgrades to fix the problems caused by thinking too big too fast.
But what does all that mean for the Real Estate Market? How is it affecting house and land prices when we (Gallatin in particular) have an overabundance of multi-family properties being built (apartments)? What is the long term affect?
I recently used Chat GPT to ask that very question just to see what this kind of struggle between massive growth spurts and Real Estate values would look like. It researched the past 50 years for Cities and Towns that have done something similar, and the results were very interesting. For places with extreme growth, especially apartments, in short period of times tend to experience vacancy issues that lead to incentives offered in order to try and keep places full. This brings in seemingly quick growth for the area, but it tends to slow rent growth and cools appreciation of houses temporarily. Is this one of the reasons we see many house prices being reduced prior to houses selling in the area? Only time will tell.
It also pointed out that an area needed a very strong Economic Growth to support extreme growth in living units. Without that strong Economic Growth, property values tend to go stagnant, neighborhoods decline, and the multifamily units become distressed. Results like these have been seen already in our country in places like Detroit, St Louis and Cleveland. Will this affect Sumner County seeing the Nashville is one of the fastest growing cities in the country? Only Time will Tell.
This is another reason why so many people are looking more and more for a property, or a home with land, so they can get away a little from the hustle and bustle that apparent improper planning and growth bring. Property prices further out in the county tend to grow more and more as more and more people look for their own place for piece and quiet.
What strains and struggles will the growth we are seeing eventually cause in Sumner County and towns like Hendersonville and Gallatin? How will it affect housing prices and land prices? Will the roads and utilities be able to close the gap, or catch up with the growth? Only Time Will Tell!
However, for those who find that place of solitude! A place to create their own place of peace and quiet! Those folks will be ahead of the times as more and more people begin to search for that very thing!
If you are considering a move like this, We would absolutely love to help you get ahead of the Times, and locate your very own Dream location for your place to call Home. Reach out today, 615-824-0044.
Ray Carman
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